Renewable Energy Predicted to Boom, Surpass Natural Gas

Within the next three years, renewable power could surpass natural gas as the second most prevalent source of electricity generation globally, behind only coal, according to a new forecast by the International Energy Agency.

Hydropower accounts for about four-fifths of renewable generation and will continue to dominate the world's renewable portfolio into the foreseeable future, according to the IEA's "Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report" for 2013. But the gains made by the sector as a whole come from other sources of clean energy, particularly onshore wind.

Speaking yesterday at the release of the five-year forecast, IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said despite a dip in growth during 2012, the renewable energy sector continued to make impressive gains.

"The rapid rate of growth of renewables, at least in the electricity sector, is very much in line with that needed to stay on the trajectory associated with IEA low-carbon energy scenarios," she said.

The challenge to international climate targets, however, has been a simultaneous surge in the growth of fossil fuels. The growth in supply from North American tight oil and gas producers coupled with demand growth in developing countries means that despite technological development and international efforts, the carbon intensity of the global energy supply has barely changed over the past 20 years, van der Hoeven said.

In this context, she said, "the rapid growth of renewables continues to beat expectations and is a bright spot in an otherwise bleak assessment of global progress towards a cleaner and more diversified energy mix."

More than markets at work:
 

While development of new renewable energy technologies continues to be driven by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, demand is accelerating fastest in emerging markets. On its own, China is expected to account for nearly 40 percent of all expected global growth in renewables, followed by Brazil, India and South Africa.

These developments are not simply a response to government-imposed renewable energy mandates. As developing countries lay plans to meet future demand for electricity, renewables offer pollution-free, diversified supply. And in certain countries, the markets themselves have rendered renewables cost-competitive.

In Brazil, Turkey and New Zealand, wind now competes with fossil fuel power plants. In Italy, Spain and Australia, the cost of decentralized solar photovoltaic electricity has dropped below retail electricity prices.

But the entrance of new renewables to the world's electricity mix brings with it its own host of challenges, the report notes. In a number of European markets, high levels of renewables have run up against a lack of flexibility in the power grid. Smarter grids will be needed before new renewable generation can be added, a prospect involving both time and serious financial investment.

And the economic doldrums afflicting Europe have set a few countries on reverse course. Spain, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria have all reversed renewable energy programs or subsidies, actions that "totally destroy investor confidence, potentially for a long time," van der Hoeven said.

Spain had originally promised investors two decades of renewable energy subsidies but is expected to rein in its subsidies by 10 or 20 percent due to the global recession and a lackluster market for European Union carbon credits.

While a dip in growth during 2012 showed that renewable markets are vulnerable to outside conditions, the market segment continued to grow by 8 percent, the IEA report notes.

Source: http://www.scientificamerican.com

RES Plants in Greece

The installed capacity of renewable energy sources (RES) in Greece exceeded 2,500 megawatts in 2011 while the photovoltaic system sector grew considerably in the same period, according to a study by Hellastat, a private surveying company. Nevertheless, RES still account for a comparatively small share of the country’s energy production.

The report for 2011 showed that renewable sources contributed no more than 5 percent to the country’s power output, as the total production of RES – not including large hydroelectric plants – came to 2,535 gigawatt-hours. This did however represent a notable 24.3 percent increase compared to 2010.

Following a law passed in 2010 that accelerated licensing procedures, the total installed capacity of RES plants grew 44 percent in 2011 compared to the previous year, exceeding 2,500 MW. Some 770 MW of installed capacity was added in 2011, the Hellastat survey shows.

Photovoltaic systems registered the biggest increase, as they multiplied their capacity from 198 MW in 2010 to 626 MW the following year. A key factor in that growth was the new guaranteed prices in the electrical energy market that applied from February 1, 2012.

A large share of the growth in solar energy systems has come from the program for the subsidized installation of photovoltaic systems on rooftops. In 2011 no fewer than 11,700 project applications were accepted and implemented, offering 102 MW, while the capacity of photovoltaic systems in agricultural spaces amounted to 8 MW.

The dominant role in the RES sector still belongs to wind parks, which also showed a rise in 2011: Their share of the sector came to about two-thirds, with their capacity adding up to 1,636 MW, up from 1,300 MW in 2010, a 26 percent increase year-on-year.

The extent of market’s growth is illustrated by the major 51.5 percent annual increase in the total power of transaction contracts, which at end-2011 amounted to 2,530 MW from 1,670 MW a year earlier. The capacity of the installation permits came to 1,840 MW (up 10 percent in a year) and of the production permits to 2,600 (up 51 percent).

Despite the adverse economic environment, 2011 also saw the implementation of several new projects for the construction of RES plants, as the sector’s turnover grew by 36.8 percent to 635.61 million euros. Two-thirds of companies (65 percent) saw their revenues rise from 2010.

Effect of climate changes and solar industry

Climate change leads to more intense, longer storms, drought and heat, according to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And severe weather is costly to human lives and the economy, as Hurricane Sandy has recently reminded us when it hit the east coast of the United States. Unlike nuclear power plants that were shut down, and natural gas explosions in New York and New Jersey as a result of the superstorm, shutting off gas and electricity to millions, solar power is a relatively safe form of energy.

But this doesn’t mean the industry is exempt from climate-change-related risks.

Real Goods Solar issued a statement, “Surviving a Hurricane – Hurricane Sandy, Solar Panels and You,” to its solar customers as the storm descended on the northeastern US, assuring that its PV systems are “designed, engineered and installed to all applicable building codes and engineering standards for their location and environment.”

“You do not need to take any extra measures to secure your solar panels during severe weather,” it said. But, it added, grid-tied solar arrays won’t provide electricity if there’s a blackout.

And extreme weather can pose a risk to solar systems. In addition to the obvious dangers, like floods or tornados carrying away rooftops and their attached solar installations, hailstorms can break glass plates that cover PV modules, and extreme heat and cold can affect panel degradation.

Some installations fared quite well, which is testament to rigorous testing and certification. For example, two commercial solar systems installed in Pennsylvania were unscathed during Hurricane Sandy. Tecta Solar inspected the ET Solar PV systems and reported that both systems were producing at 100%.

“Climate change may drive the solar industry to test more to these new ratings,” says Dr. Paul Robusto, photovoltaic business development manager at Intertek. “Certain areas may see higher temperatures, more rain, rapidly changing temperatures, increased wind and snow levels, and larger hail sizes. The ratings being developed become more important in light of these changing weather patterns.”

He’s talking about new tests and standards being developed by the International PV Module Quality Assurance Task Force, an NREL program that is working to develop a rating system that meets the needs of all countries and customers so that PV manufacturers will need to complete only a single test.  The task force includes nine task groups, responsible for testing for humidity, temperature, and voltage, wind loading, UV and other conditions. Robusto sits on some of the task groups.

Intertek Regional Vice President for Renewable Energy Sunny Rai said, “We are working to establish a quality assurance rating program looking at the impact of modules being installed in an area where they are exposed to very high temperatures, or hot but dry like a desert or hot but very humid like Florida and places in southeast Asia, Malaysia, India,” Rai explains. “Standards are being developed to address different weather conditions or climate conditions as we see on a normal basis.”

Solar can help shipping go green

From a distance, the yellow-and-blue ferry docking at the pier resembles the scores of other vessels that hop between Hong Kong's outlying islands and the peninsula every day.

But a closer look as passengers disembark reveals a grid of gleaming solar panels on the ferry's roof and, instead of the usual throbbing engine noise, there is a barely audible buzz.

The Solar Eagle and three similar vessels shuttle golfers to tee off on an 18-hole island course. Together they form the world's first hybrid powered ferry fleet and a commercial proving ground for technology that could transform the future of marine travel.

Electricity created by the solar panels and stored in a battery powers the engine while the vessel comes in and out of the harbor. Once out in the open ocean and a faster clip is required, the diesel kicks in.

One of the fleet, the Solar Albatross, sports two sails covered in solar panels that can be raised to harness both the sun and the wind to further reduce reliance on fossil fuel.

Robert Dane, Solar Sailor's founder, says that the technology offers ship owner huge fuel savings and has the potential to be used on all types of vessels from humble ferries and luxury super-yachts to bulk carriers shipping iron ore and navy patrol ships.

"I think in 50 to 100 years, all ships will have solar sails," he says.

"It just makes so much sense. You're out there on the water and there's so much light bouncing around and there's a lot more energy in the wind than in the sun."

Solar Powered Ship

 

What's 100 feet long by 50 feet wide, cost $17.5 million to build and runs on 38,000 photovoltaic cells? It's the Turanor PlanetSolar, a massive catamaran powered solely by the sun.

The what? Turanor is a word taken from J.R.R. Tolkien's "Lord of the Rings" saga and translates into "the power of the sun". PlanetSolar is the team of 100 engineers and others working to be the first to circumnavigate the globe with a solar-powered boat.

"This is a milestone in the progress of solar mobility," Immo Stroher, a German investor who partnered with Swiss adventurer Raphael Domjan to bankroll the showcase for solar power, said in a statement. "It is my vision to see solar power take its rightful place — not only on rooftops, but also on the roads, seas and in the skies of the future."

After arriving from Europe last Saturday, the catamaran and its six-member crew spent a few days in Miami, Fla., and then left Tuesday for a leg to Cancun, Mexico, where delegates to the U.N. climate change summit are meeting.

"This voyage around the world is meant to test the long-term performance," Domjan stated. "When it comes to solar shipping, brilliant innovation is required: less weight, less friction, efficient propulsion, a reliable solar energy store and finally, the production of electric energy."

With a "wave-piercing" design, the 24-foot-tall catamaran "slices" through the water instead of riding waves, which takes more energy.

Moreover, the catamaran has a surface area of more than 5,700 square feet, allowing for 825 modules that house the 38,000 photovoltaic cells. The crew can adjust how many cells are used by extending the length and/or width of the catamaran by several feet. Electricity from the sun powers four electric motors that propel the catamaran's two drive shafts.

Finally, a 13-ton lithium battery in the hull store enough electricity to run the catamaran for up to three days without direct sunlight. But the ride is slow, with only just enough power to keep the catamaran at around 7 knots (about 8 mph) during favorable conditions — slow by sailing standards.

And then there's the criticism of why bother with solar when there's a much cheaper renewable energy for shipping: the wind.

"Some people say, 'You have built the most unnecessary vessel in the world because it is running without an engine, but that's what people have done with sails for 3,000 years,''' Stroher told the Miami Herald. "They are right, of course. It's not my main purpose to have boats or ships run on solar but to show what renewable resources are able to achieve.'' 

Now a month since leaving Monaco, the Turanor PlanetSolar is expected to take another nine months to complete the around-the-world journey.

For its backers, each stop along the way is a chance to excite others about the possibilities.

"We want to motivate engineers and scientists to develop innovative technologies," said Domjan. "This is to show that visions are about to become reality."