RES Plants in Greece

The installed capacity of renewable energy sources (RES) in Greece exceeded 2,500 megawatts in 2011 while the photovoltaic system sector grew considerably in the same period, according to a study by Hellastat, a private surveying company. Nevertheless, RES still account for a comparatively small share of the country’s energy production.

The report for 2011 showed that renewable sources contributed no more than 5 percent to the country’s power output, as the total production of RES – not including large hydroelectric plants – came to 2,535 gigawatt-hours. This did however represent a notable 24.3 percent increase compared to 2010.

Following a law passed in 2010 that accelerated licensing procedures, the total installed capacity of RES plants grew 44 percent in 2011 compared to the previous year, exceeding 2,500 MW. Some 770 MW of installed capacity was added in 2011, the Hellastat survey shows.

Photovoltaic systems registered the biggest increase, as they multiplied their capacity from 198 MW in 2010 to 626 MW the following year. A key factor in that growth was the new guaranteed prices in the electrical energy market that applied from February 1, 2012.

A large share of the growth in solar energy systems has come from the program for the subsidized installation of photovoltaic systems on rooftops. In 2011 no fewer than 11,700 project applications were accepted and implemented, offering 102 MW, while the capacity of photovoltaic systems in agricultural spaces amounted to 8 MW.

The dominant role in the RES sector still belongs to wind parks, which also showed a rise in 2011: Their share of the sector came to about two-thirds, with their capacity adding up to 1,636 MW, up from 1,300 MW in 2010, a 26 percent increase year-on-year.

The extent of market’s growth is illustrated by the major 51.5 percent annual increase in the total power of transaction contracts, which at end-2011 amounted to 2,530 MW from 1,670 MW a year earlier. The capacity of the installation permits came to 1,840 MW (up 10 percent in a year) and of the production permits to 2,600 (up 51 percent).

Despite the adverse economic environment, 2011 also saw the implementation of several new projects for the construction of RES plants, as the sector’s turnover grew by 36.8 percent to 635.61 million euros. Two-thirds of companies (65 percent) saw their revenues rise from 2010.

Solar Energy Predictions for 2013

1. Module prices will continue a gradual decline by another 5-10% in 2013.  That means that the average first customer price will be in the neighborhood of $0.60/watt — with many manufacturers selling in the mid to low $0.50.  There is no chance of prices going up in 2013.  By the end of the year you’ll be able to get two solar modules at the checkout register of your local dollar stores.

2. The game of Chinese Checkers will continue as the big solar manufacturers jump over the smaller companies and absorb their capacity.  Modules are commodities distinguished by balance sheets — not minor incremental performance differences.  Unfortunately, government support of manufacturers (of which almost all countries are guilty) distorts the reality of these balance sheets.  Small manufacturers will just roll their marbles off the board and disappear in dusty cracks in the sofa — and half a billion dollars worth of mothballed solar manufacturing equipment will clutter the back alleys of Asian tourist markets. Weak module companies will merge with other weak companies or just disappear. 

There will be no meaningful acquisitions of module companies (except by state run enterprises) since no one wants the warranty liability from the installed base.  Valuable technology and equipment will be sold for pennies on the dollar or cauterized through bankruptcy.  The net effect on worldwide capacity will not be enough to increase ASPs, just stabilize the rate of decline.  This eventual consolidation will set the industry up for 5-10% profits to be made on commodity module manufacturing sometime in the 2015 or 2016 timeframe.

3. Module manufacturers will continue their downstream diversification efforts in order to find customers for their production.  Inevitably, their balance sheets will be consumed by their need to provide financing for projects using their own products.  But these projects are not profitable enough or fast enough to kick off sufficient cash for rapid growth.  So in total, he who has the biggest balance sheet has the best chance for success in this downstream project business.

4. Inverter prices will also continue to coast down another 5-10%.  China is a manufacturing freight train, and its next stop is inverters.  Once again, bad news for inverter company profits, good news for customers, mixed news for installers and EPC companies (see below), and challenging news for inverter company M&A.

5. Large and medium scale EPC/installers will leave the market, go out of business or change business models.  They are valued by their pipeline, not their historic revenue (because historic revenue comes with future performance liabilities).  Profits for EPC companies and installers get severely squeezed when ASPs go down.  At a 25% gross margin and $8/watt ASP, there is $2 to cover soft costs and direct labor; one can operate a viable business.  But when ASPs go down to $4, there is only $1 to cover these costs — not enough to be profitable when the soft costs are stuck at about $1.50.  Without creative accounting, the larger you get the more money you lose; it’s an inherently localized business.  These negative economies of scale are born out by the financial trends of every single publicly traded EPC/installation company.

6. Climate change legislation will be kicked around and posited as the solution to the looming worldwide climate catastrophe.  But nothing comprehensive will happen in the U.S. because the catastrophe is too far off.  I hope I am wrong, but we are already two disasters past Hurricane Sandy — the most compelling U.S. climate change manifestation to date.  Instead, the U.S. Congress will approve bipartisan incremental policies targeted towards enabling new sources of solar financing such as MLPs and REITs.

7. Utilities and other incumbent energy suppliers will intensify their all-out war on DG solar, deploying every dirty trick in the book.  Of course, we all know that “solar is expensive, unless managed by your friendly local utility.”  NOT.  Net metering will be attacked everywhere in a consolidated, coordinated effort.  The solar industry will remain conflicted about taking a strong net metering position, since although half the industry makes cheap electricity for DG customers, the other half sells products and services to utilities.  The big lie that net metering is a cost shift from rich people to poor people will continue.  White papers and esteemed research will be published confirming both opposing points of view, while states and PUCs kick the can down the road stalling for conclusive research while their retirement beckons. 

8. Soft costs will continue to increase as a percentage of system costs — just like we’ve experienced over the past three years.  Ouch.  Paperwork and bureaucracy is not easily reduced for two reasons.  First, incumbent energy providers will redouble their efforts to increase solar costs in every jurisdiction that they can influence; paperwork and bureaucracy in the name of “safety” is an easy way to accomplish this goal.  Second, there are thousands of solar paperwork service providers all over the country — from incentive administrators to software developers to utility interconnection managers — who are employed solely to approve and reject solar paperwork.  So without a national-scale effort, localized soft cost reduction efforts will be a drop in the bucket.

9. More residential financing companies and products will become available to homeowners, building on the sales ramp successes of SolarCity, SunRun, Sungevity and others.  The economics of rooftop solar will keep getting better, but ordinary installers and EPC companies will continue to struggle.  Whether commercial or residential, the Golden Rule applies to solar financing: he who has the gold makes the rules.

10. Solar trade shows will consolidate.  There are not enough profitable module, inverter and racking companies to fill committed exhibit halls.  Marketing dollars paid by China, Inc. will end for all but the biggest manufacturers.  Luckily, the remaining shows will be profitable and well attended.  By 2018 the entire renewable energy industry — solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, smart grid — will hold their annual show in Vegas, just like Comdex in the ‘80s.

Total BIPV System Capacity to Quintuple by 2017

Both the building industry, which is still plagued by low housing starts and new builds, and the global solar industry, which is facing severe reductions in financial subsidies in key markets, have been under stress in recent years. The emergent market for Building Integrated Photo Voltaics (BIPV) offers a new way to develop revenue streams for these two industries. According to a recent report from Pike Research, a part of Navigant’s Energy Practice, the total capacity of BIPV systems worldwide will grow from just over 400 megawatts (MW) in 2012 to 2,250 MW in 2017, a more than five-fold increase.

“The growing availability of energy-efficient, flexible, and transparent solar materials is transforming the way that architects and building engineers view, and use, photovoltaic systems”

The annual value of the BIPV market will quadruple over the next five years, growing from $606 million in 2012 to more than $2.4 billion in 2017, the study concludes.

“The growing availability of energy-efficient, flexible, and transparent solar materials is transforming the way that architects and building engineers view, and use, photovoltaic systems,” says research director Kerry-Ann Adamson. “In the future, BIPV will no longer be confined to spandrels or overhead applications. Rather, the entire building envelope will be able to put it to use, allowing the structure to produce its own power and feed additional power into the grid system.”

Going into 2013, the BIPV market will open up more as it rebounds from the great solar depression and several long-term projects hit the market, according to the report. An increasing number of players in the supply chain are working together to provide solutions for the entire building envelope. Among the most important next steps for the industry is the development of finished solar modules made by continuous production from PV rolls. Developing the ability to print the PV coating directly on to steel roof cladding will enable the modules to be produced in large volumes, cost-effectively.

The report, “Building Integrated Photovoltaics,” examines the expanding global markets for BIPV and Building Applied Photo Voltaics (BAPV) including a comprehensive analysis of demand drivers and economics, technology issues, and key industry players. The report includes detailed profiles of 53 companies in the sector as well as a detailed review of current government policies and financial incentives. Forecasts for worldwide BIPV/BAPV capacity by world region and by technology, along with forecasts of wholesale market revenues, are provided through 2017. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Pike Research website.

About Pike Research

Pike Research, which joined Navigant’s global Energy Practice on July 1, 2012, provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The team’s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy, Smart Utilities, Smart Transportation, Smart Industry, and Smart Buildings sectors. 

About Navigant

Navigant (NYSE: NCI) is a specialized, global expert services firm dedicated to assisting clients in creating and protecting value in the face of critical business risks and opportunities. Through senior level engagement with clients, Navigant professionals combine technical expertise in Disputes and Investigations, Economics, Financial Advisory and Management Consulting, with business pragmatism in the highly regulated Construction, Energy, Financial Services and Healthcare industries to support clients in addressing their most critical business needs.

NREL and LBNL reports on PV system pricing

On December 4th, 2012 the US Department of Energy's (DOE) National Renewable Energy Laboratories (NREL, Golden, Colorado, US) and DOE's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL, Berkeley, California, US) jointly released two reports looking at solar photovoltaic (PV) pricing in the United States. 

The first report looks at historical progress for PV price reductions, as well as providing future projections, finding that system prices are likely to continue to fall through 2012 and into 2013. 

The second report looks at the components of "soft" costs for PV systems.

"There is often confusion when interpreting estimates of PV system prices," said NREL Solar Technology Financial Analyst David Feldman. 

"This report helps to clarify this confusion by bringing together data from a number of different sources and clearly distinguishing among past, current and near-term projected estimates."

PV prices tracked against SunShot goal:

"Photovoltaic (PV) pricing trends: historical, recent and near-term projections" looks at progress in price reduction in relation to the goals of the DOE's SunShot program to reduce the installed cost of PV systems by roughly 75% between 2010 and 2020. This report indicates that while data sources, assumptions and methods differ between the bottom-up analysis and the reported price analysis, the results support the validity of both analyses. The report draws on multiple ongoing NREL research activities.

Presentation of DOE analysis on soft cost:

The second report, "Benchmarking non-hardware balance of system (soft) costs for US photovoltaic systems using a data-driven analysis from PV installer survey results", presents results from the first DOE-sponsored data collection and analysis of such costs. 

The report finds that these costs made up 40-50% of residential and commercial US PV prices in 2010. The study benchmarks four particular categories of soft costs, looking at customer acquisition, permitting, inspection and interconnection, installation labor, and labor associated with arranging third-party financing.

NREL and LBNL found that these costs alone comprised 23% of residential PV system prices, 17% of small commercial system prices and 5% of large commercial system prices. 

 

Veterans Memorial Park and Solar LED Street Lights

TOWN OF NIAGARA – The roadways in Veterans Memorial Park, 7000 Lockport Road, are brighter this holiday season, after the installation this month of 25 solar-powered LED streetlights by the New York Power Authority and the Town of Niagara.

The new lights are powered by energy generated by the sun during the day and then transmitted as much-needed light during the night at the previously unlighted park.

Town Supervisor Steven C. Richards said the lighting was paid for with money from the Power Authority’s Renewable Energy Plan, established in 2008 to help create a pathway to commercialization of renewable energy technology as it emerges.

LED streetlights use light-emitting diodes, which have helped to revolutionize many lighting applications and made it possible to build dramatically thinner television sets. LEDs now provide light for remote controls, light-up clocks and watches, tell when appliances are turned on, and are ideal for miniature lighting of holiday displays.

They often come in tiny packages, but they produce a large amount of light.

Their useful lifetime is thousands of hours longer than that of standard incandescent bulbs.

Source: http://www.buffalonews.com

Code changed to ease permitting of PV Systems

Mayor Billy Kenoi has signed a bill easing restrictions for residential installations of photovoltaic systems.

The change means that an architect or structural engineer’s seal is no longer needed on building plans for systems on homes. The seal is still required for commercial installations.

The change was made with the passing of Ordinance 12-149, which Kenoi signed on Nov. 8. The ordinance amends Chapter 9 of the Hawaii County Code.

“With this change in the electrical code, homeowners and installers can get photovoltaic systems on homes more quickly,” Kenoi said in a statement issued by his office. “Residential photovoltaic systems are an important part of reducing our island’s dependence on imported fuels and easing the burden of high electricity prices on our Hawai‘i Island families.”

Building and electrical permits are still required for both residential and non-residential photovoltaic installations, as is an electrical engineer’s stamp for electrical design drawings.

Warren Lee, director of the Department of Public Works, said the plans will still need to be reviewed by county staff. He said that process will be shortened if they incorporate any of a number of mounting systems the county has pre-approved.

Electrical and building applications may be completed and tracked online through the Papa Aukahi web portal at papaaukahi.hawaiicounty.gov. Public computers are also available within the Hilo and Kona Building Division offices to create and track online permit applications.

According to the mayor’s office, front-desk support for permit applications is available from 7:45 a.m. to 3:30 p.m., Monday through Friday, with the exception of Wednesday in Hilo and Thursday in Kona, when the desks close at noon.  All other public works divisions remain available weekdays until 4:30 p.m. for code questions, consultation, and to drop off or pick up plans and permits.

Parking underneath solar panel's roof

Renault is inaugurating a large installation of solar panels at six of its French plants, in a move designed to reduce energy costs and lower the factories’ CO2 emissions.

The French automaker, which first announced the project in early 2011, said the solar-power plan for its factories is the biggest of its kind in the world. The 400,000 square meters of panels are being installed at plants in Douai, Maubeuge, Flins, Batilly, Sandouville and Cleon in both delivery and shipping sites and employee parking areas.

Because the panels are designed to resist impact, including hail, they also help protect vehicles before delivery to the sales network, Renault said.

The carmaker developed the system with Gestamp Solar, a Spanish developer and operator of utility-scale photovoltaic plants, and French solar panel specialist Coruscant. Both companies serve as operational project managers for the solar panels.

Renault plans to equip international plants with similar panels. It has already set up nearly 100,000 square meters of solar panels at factories in Valladolid and Palencia, Spain, and is conducting feasibility studies in Slovenia, Morocco, Brazil, Colombia, Chile and Romania. Construction for 300,000 square meters of panels at a plant in Busan, South Korea, is scheduled for completion by year-end.

Solar Tower

Southern California is about to receive a source of clean, green power at a cost considered competitive with fossil fuels–without creating a giant water “footprint” in the desert, either. That’s the news from the Southern California Public Power Authority, which recently announced that it has signed a power purchase agreement with EnviroMission of Australia, who plans to build a giant solar farm in Arizona.

The 200 megawatt Solar Tower power station development  is expected to annually offset more than one million tons of the greenhouse gases typically produced by fossil fuel generators of the same scale.  What’s more, it will do so without using water to cool its mechanical systems–a key concern for utilizing the solar resources of the desert without impacting its scarce groundwater resources. (Both fossil fuel and renewable energy generators consume billions of gallons of potable water annually in generating electricity.)

Southern California Public Power Authority consists of eleven municipal utilities and one irrigation district, with members delivering electricity to approximately two million metered accounts over 7,000 square miles, serving a population of nearly five million. EnviroMission has gained coverage in its native Australia for its giant solar thermal designs, destined for both the Land Down Under and the U.S.

Effect of climate changes and solar industry

Climate change leads to more intense, longer storms, drought and heat, according to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And severe weather is costly to human lives and the economy, as Hurricane Sandy has recently reminded us when it hit the east coast of the United States. Unlike nuclear power plants that were shut down, and natural gas explosions in New York and New Jersey as a result of the superstorm, shutting off gas and electricity to millions, solar power is a relatively safe form of energy.

But this doesn’t mean the industry is exempt from climate-change-related risks.

Real Goods Solar issued a statement, “Surviving a Hurricane – Hurricane Sandy, Solar Panels and You,” to its solar customers as the storm descended on the northeastern US, assuring that its PV systems are “designed, engineered and installed to all applicable building codes and engineering standards for their location and environment.”

“You do not need to take any extra measures to secure your solar panels during severe weather,” it said. But, it added, grid-tied solar arrays won’t provide electricity if there’s a blackout.

And extreme weather can pose a risk to solar systems. In addition to the obvious dangers, like floods or tornados carrying away rooftops and their attached solar installations, hailstorms can break glass plates that cover PV modules, and extreme heat and cold can affect panel degradation.

Some installations fared quite well, which is testament to rigorous testing and certification. For example, two commercial solar systems installed in Pennsylvania were unscathed during Hurricane Sandy. Tecta Solar inspected the ET Solar PV systems and reported that both systems were producing at 100%.

“Climate change may drive the solar industry to test more to these new ratings,” says Dr. Paul Robusto, photovoltaic business development manager at Intertek. “Certain areas may see higher temperatures, more rain, rapidly changing temperatures, increased wind and snow levels, and larger hail sizes. The ratings being developed become more important in light of these changing weather patterns.”

He’s talking about new tests and standards being developed by the International PV Module Quality Assurance Task Force, an NREL program that is working to develop a rating system that meets the needs of all countries and customers so that PV manufacturers will need to complete only a single test.  The task force includes nine task groups, responsible for testing for humidity, temperature, and voltage, wind loading, UV and other conditions. Robusto sits on some of the task groups.

Intertek Regional Vice President for Renewable Energy Sunny Rai said, “We are working to establish a quality assurance rating program looking at the impact of modules being installed in an area where they are exposed to very high temperatures, or hot but dry like a desert or hot but very humid like Florida and places in southeast Asia, Malaysia, India,” Rai explains. “Standards are being developed to address different weather conditions or climate conditions as we see on a normal basis.”

Bubble tracking in PV systems

Concentrating solar photovoltaic (PV) systems cut system costs by reducing the area of PV cells for a specified electrical output, but the precise mechanical tracking systems needed to keep a concentrator aimed at the sun can raise the system cost, to little advantage. As a result, researchers are looking at nonmechanical ways to finely track the sun (coarse tracking could still be left to a lower-cost mechanical tracker).

A group at the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (Lausanne, Switzerland) has developed an optofluidic waveguide coupling mechanism in which focused light heats liquid in a waveguide to form a bubble of vapor that scatters the incoming sunlight into the waveguide, which carries the light to a concentrating PV cell. The experimental efficiency of a system coupling laser light through an off-the-shelf axicon lens pair into a methanol-containing waveguide was greater than 40%. Two lasers were used: one emitting at 460 nm to represent the visible part of the solar spectrum, and an infrared (IR) laser diode to simulate the IR spectral portion. When focused on the IR-absorbing glass that helps form the waveguide, the light produces a bubble that varies between 160 and 300 μm in diameter for IR power between 40 and 100 mW. The bubble-tracking technique could reach at least 90% efficiency with better optics, say the researchers.